Favre -- Cold Hard Football Facts

[amoeba15]

20 Aug 2009 02:23 pm

I think Cold Hard Football Facts make a good case that Brett Favre--the Brett Favre of today--is not a very good quarterback. I had actually forgotten how many big games Favre has blown in recent years. Moreover, I knew the dude through a lot of interceptions--but the most in a single season in over twenty years:

Favre ended the disastrous 2005 season with 29 INTs. Since 1980, only Vinny Testaverde has thrown more picks in a season (35 in 1988)...

It's all part of a four-year trend of substandard play for Favre. These are Favre's cumulative numbers over the past four seasons (three with the Packers, one with the Jets):

1414 of 2277 (62.1%), 15,393 yards, 6.76 YPA, 88 TD, 84 INT, 79.5 passer rating
His volume numbers are great - attempts, completions, yards - which means that teams still believe they can win by letting Favre gun the ball all over the field. His completion percentage is actually pretty strong, too.

But the all-important efficiency numbers - the numbers that mean the difference between victory and defeat - are mediocre to bad. In an era when a 2-to-1 INT-to-TD ratio is considered great, Favre's nearly 1-to-1 ratio is pretty pathetic. His passer rating is slightly below average. And his yards per attempt are slightly below average.

And then there's the big games. A few choice selections:

Jan. 20, 2002
The reality: The Packers have a shot to reach the conference championship game for first time since the 1997 season if they beat Rams in the divisional round.

The Favre apologist fantasy: The 12-4 Packers were no match for the 14-2 Rams

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Rams edged out the 11-5 Eagles by just five points in the conference title game and lost to the 11-5 Patriots in the Super Bowl. The Packers easily could have beat the Rams if Favre had not thrown 6 picks - tying the single-game NFL record for postseason picks last matched by a passer back in 1955.

The 2006 season
The reality: Packers climb back to respectability with an 8-8 record.

The Favre apologist fantasy: Favre helped the blind to see.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre had trouble focusing on the field, with a 72.7 passer rating that was among the worst in football that season. The list of quarterbacks with a better rating in 2006 included some of the most widely ridiculed passers in football: David Carr (82.1), Michael Vick (75.7), Alex Smith (74.8) and Rex Grossman (73.9)

Jan. 20, 2008
The reality: The 13-3 Packers were favored at home against the 10-6 Giants on one of the coldest nights in Lambeau Field history.

The Favre apologist fantasy: The Packers ran into a buzzsaw and lost to the eventual Super Bowl champs.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre, and the Packers offense, suffered one of the most colossal collapses in history. In the fourth quarter and overtime, Favre completed 4 of 10 passes for 32 yards with 2 INTs. Green Bay's final four drives, with a Super Bowl appearance easily within its grasp, went for 0, 7, 0 and 2 yards. Favre's final pick, on the second play of overtime, led directly to the Giants' game-winning field goal.

But at least he's a gunslinger!

Seriously, how do you throw six interceptions in a playoff game?

ta-nehisicoates.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/08/the_brett_favre_problem.php

[amoeba15]

Favre fantasy vs. reality
Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 19, 2009


The Viking inked Brett Favre to a two-year, $25 million deal Tuesday, apparently confusing the Brett Favre of 1996 with the one who they actually signed.

The Vikings don't get a top-notch NFL quarterback. What they get is a mistake-prone quarterback with a 79.5 passer rating over the past four years who turns 40 in October and who hasn't led a team to a championship since the time Bill Clinton was not having sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky.

Despite the recent track record, Favre continues to be surrounded by a fantasy of continued greatness. In fact, some fans and media inhabit this fantasy world where Favre is a "big-game" gunslinger who can lift an otherwise solid team such as the Vikings to a Super Bowl title. The Vikings certainly believe this, too, or they would not have courted him all year, before signing him in an act of desperation three weeks into training camp.

But the Cold, Hard Football Facts have long been baffled by this Favre fantasy.

The truth about Favre is that, for most of the past decade, he’s taken one contender after another and ruined their championship hopes with critical big-game mistakes.

So here’s a look at the fantasies that have surrounded Favre in recent years and that continue to live on in Minnesota, and a look at the reality of Favre, low-lighted by his critical gaffes in big games. This is the Favre that the Minnesota signed on Tuesday. It's not pretty, Vikings fans.

Jan. 20, 2002
The reality: The Packers have a shot to reach the conference championship game for first time since the 1997 season if they beat Rams in the divisional round.

The Favre apologist fantasy: The 12-4 Packers were no match for the 14-2 Rams

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Rams edged out the 11-5 Eagles by just five points in the conference title game and lost to the 11-5 Patriots in the Super Bowl. The Packers easily could have beat the Rams if Favre had not thrown 6 picks – tying the single-game NFL record for postseason picks last matched by a passer back in 1955.

Jan. 4, 2003
The reality: The 12-4 Packers were again one of the best teams in football, playing at home against the tepid 9-6-1 Falcons.

The Favre apologist fantasy: Favre walks on water.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre sinks like a lead weight, reserving one of his worst performances of the year (20 of 42, 47.6%, 247 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INT, 54.4 rating) for when it matters most in a 27-7 loss. It was Green Bay's lowest offensive output of the season and the franchise’s first-ever home playoff loss.

Jan. 11, 2004
The reality: The Packers need to produce just one drive in overtime to beat the Eagles and then battle the Panthers for a chance to go to Super Bowl XXXVIII.

The Favre apologist fantasy: The Green Bay Favrers defense let Brett down when they surrendered a miracle 4th and 26 completion by Donovan McNabb in the fourth quarter, allowing the Eagles to tie the game.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: On Green Bay's first play of overtime, Favre promptly tossed a bad pass into the hands of Eagles defender Brian Dawkins. McNabb quickly drove the offense into easy field goal range for the victory. The Favrers defense disappointed Brett by sacking McNabb a mere 8 times, while the Favrers ground game failed to hold up its end of the bargain with just 210 yards and a measly average of 5.7 YPA. Favre passed for 180 yards, one of his lowest outputs of the year.

Jan. 9, 2005
The reality: The 10-6 Packers draw a gimme, landing the 8-8 Vikings at home in the wildcard round.

The Favre apologist fantasy: Favre heals lepers.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre turns out a gruesomely disfiguring playoff performance (22 of 33, 66.7%, 216 yards, 6.5 YPA, 1 TD, 4 INT, 55.4 rating), as Packers suffer a humiliating 31-17 loss to one of the worst teams ever to reach the playoffs. Had the Seahawks not lost to the Rams just one day earlier, Favre would have been the first quarterback in history to lose a playoff game to a .500 team.

The 2005 season
The reality: The Packers suffer their first losing season in the Favre Era.

The Favre apologist fantasy: The Packers went 4-12 because Favre had no talent around him.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Eight times in the 2005 season, Favre took the field in the fourth quarter with his team in position to tie or take the lead and a chance for him to play the role of hero. In all eight games, he threw crushing interceptions that killed any hopes for victory. Favre’s 29 picks that year are the most thrown by any quarterback in the past 20 years.

The 2006 season
The reality: Packers climb back to respectability with an 8-8 record.

The Favre apologist fantasy: Favre helped the blind to see.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre had trouble focusing on the field, with a 72.7 passer rating that was among the worst in football that season. The list of quarterbacks with a better rating in 2006 included some of the most widely ridiculed passers in football: David Carr (82.1), Michael Vick (75.7), Alex Smith (74.8) and Rex Grossman (73.9)

Jan. 20, 2008
The reality: Packers were favored at home on one of the coldest nights in Lambeau Field history.

The Favre apologist fantasy: The Packers ran into a buzzsaw and lost to the eventual Super Bowl champs.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre, and the Packers offense, suffered one of the most colossal collapses in history. In the fourth quarter and overtime, Favre completed 4 of 10 passes for 32 yards with 2 INTs. Green Bay’s final four drives, with a Super Bowl appearance easily within their grasp, went for 0, 7, 0 and 2 yards. Favre’s final pick, on the second play of overtime, led directly to the Giants’ game-winning field goal.

No wonder Cheeseheads continue to cling to 1996 as if it were yesterday: the memories Favre provided them in the years since were too painful to bear.

The 2008 season
The reality: Favre wrote a typical Favre-style tragedy that ruined what looked like a promising season for his new team, thet Jets, who led the AFC East with an 8-3 record through 11 games.

The Favre apologist fantasy: An injury prevented Favre from writing a great comeback story with his new team.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It is true that Favre was injured late in the 2008 season. But either the injury was not very bad, or he and the organization put his consecutive-games streak ahead of the welfare of the team, because he still took the field every week. And when he did, it resulted in a classic late-season meltdown for the old gunslinger. Favre was dreadful during the stretch-run collapse, throwing 2 TDs against 9 picks. INTs lead directly to losses, and the Jets went 1-4 over the final five games, and missed the playoffs despite their hot 8-3 start.
Favre ended the season with an 81.0 passer rating: 20 NFL starters last year posted a better mark, and few of them are considered champion-caliber quarterbacks.

An injury might be a good excuse … had we not seen Favre weave these fantasy time and again in his career.

www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2774_Favre_fantasy_vs._reality.html

[TW]

It's all conjecture. It will play out on the football field, and how much of his skills he still has, we'll know through his play.

It makes it interesting though. He's selling tickets for the Vikings, and that's what's needed to get a stadium deal done.

[pacdoty]

There's no denying that Favre has fell off a great deal. Whether its heart,having to carry the team,rebuilding,injury or whatever is going to show up on the field .TW is right. Maybe the Vikes knew they were buying a pig in the poke and wanted the Favre name to sell tickts as TW said. It will all show up on the field. Good hard work on the stats to amoeba. Eyeopening to say the least. For know lets tee it up and kick it off and we will see. The ride will be fun.

RANGERS LEAD THE WAY

[50poundhead]

But if Favre plays miserably, Childress will be coaching junior high somewhere and the Vikings will be in Los Angeles in 2012.

Being involved in the legislative scene in Minnesota, a stadium deal isn't going to get done during the 2010 session, Super Bowl victory or not. The state is looking at a revenue shortfall of around $4 billion for the next biennium (and that's optimistic), so it's going to be an uphill push for the Wilfs to get it done. Plus, given the political tenor and the fact that about 10 members of the legislature are running for governor, the session is probably going to be extremely short--10 weeks or so.

[needalife457]

"But if Favre plays miserably, Childress will be coaching junior high somewhere and the Vikings will be in Los Angeles in 2012."

Nope Chilly will be taking the field instead of Brett Bielama in 2010 to coach the Wisconsin Badgers, since him and Barry Alvarez still are freinds from there days coaching togethor during the Rose Bowls.

[gopackgo2000]

Great job Amoeba! It is a great recount of why I am so excited that the Vikings have Favre. He may or may not be the catylist for a new stadium and a prolonged stay in Minnestoa for the Vikings, but what I am assured he will be is a total failure by the end of the season. Not that ESPN or the Vikings fans will see it that way.